FX.co ★ tomhaye | CAD/JPY

I’ve been tracking the CADJPY currency pair closely today, and the current price action is presenting a very interesting puzzle. Right now, we’re looking at a market price of 114.191. At first glance, the momentum is clearly leaning toward the downside. The sellers are firmly in control, and we can see their active participation pushing the price lower as they assert their dominance in the current session. However, as I watch these candles develop, I’m starting to suspect that the bears might be running out of steam. While the trend is down, I believe the potential for further selling is nearing its limit, and we are seeing all the necessary ingredients for a significant bullish correction. The Battle for Key Levels Today’s trading has been defined by a critical support level at 114.380. Earlier in the session, the sellers managed to exert enough pressure to break below this mark, which is why we find ourselves at the current lows. But here is where the strategy gets interesting: if the buyers decide to get aggressive and push back, this "breakout" might turn out to be a temporary excursion. My game plan hinges on how the price reacts to that 114.380 level on the way back up. If the bulls can stage a strong comeback and, more importantly, stabilize above 114.380, it would signal that the bearish momentum has completely evaporated. Once we achieve a solid consolidation above that mark, the path opens up for a much larger move toward our primary upside target at 114.897.

Timing the Entry: The Lower Timeframe Shift I’m not just jumping in blindly at the current price. To catch a "bottom" safely, I need to see a structural shift. Even though the higher timeframe looks bearish, I am looking for a change in market structure on the lower timeframes (like the M5 or M15). Specifically, I’m looking for: A break of the recent lower highs. A shift from bearish to bullish order flow. A successful retest of the broken 114.380 level from above. Once that structural shift occurs, it will provide the "green light" or the foundation needed for a high-conviction long position. Final Outlook The market is currently a tug-of-war. On one hand, you have the immediate downward pressure, but on the other, you have an exhausted move that is ripe for a reversal. My focus is entirely on that 114.380 pivot point. If the buyers can reclaim that territory, we are likely looking at a very profitable correction toward 114.897. In trading, patience is just as important as the entry itself. I’m waiting for the buyers to prove their strength before I commit my capital. Let’s keep a sharp eye on those lower timeframe structures to see if they begin to flip bullish. It’s going to be an interesting session!