FX.co ★ amiron56 | AUD/USD

AUDUSD 0.6973 — CHOCH Distribution, FVG Imbalance at 0.6940 → SSL Hunt 0.6914 — Short Premium 0.6985 1- Current Price Action - 0.69733 Sensitive Zone Re-test Phase Chart shows current price 0.69733 sitting inside sensitive zone re-test around 0.69630 to 0.69800, just below Order Block Supply upper red zone around 0.69880 to 0.69990. Price action from October 5 05:00 to October 5 21:00 displays higher highs and equal highs around 0.69763, with small bodied candles and wicks near 0.69800, indicating buyers struggling near supply. We read purple descending trend line acting as dynamic resistance through this sensitive zone, with price hovering above it around 0.69733 but with weak bullish close. We see FVG mitigation leg purple around 0.69410 to 0.69630 acting as immediate support below current price. We interpret current phase as distribution re-test where institutions test buy side liquidity before potential bearish rejection. 2- Bearish Rejection Scenario - Distribution Phase Outlook Final outlook header says Bearish Rejection Distribution Phase, and chart draws red zigzag rejection arrow from current 0.69733 sensitive zone down toward 0.69320 Order Block Demand. We see bearish rejection scenario playing out as price fails to break above 0.69880 Supply OB and creates minor corrective retrace leg around 0.69580 noted with white arrow. We notice red path shows drop from 0.69733 to 0.69410 FVG residual imbalance, then bounce, then final breakdown toward 0.68950 SSL Hunt. We understand distribution phase means institutional distribution at premium after HTF BSL hunt engaged at top around 0.70040 to 0.70130 late September. We mark bearish rejection as high probability while price holds below 0.69880 Supply OB and below 0.69990 high. 3- Order Block Supply - 0.69880 to 0.69990 Institutional Distribution Red shaded zone labeled Order Block Supply Institutional Distribution sits around 0.69880 to 0.69990, aligned with 0.69897 orange level marked on right. That supply zone corresponds to last bullish H1 candles before CHOCH Change of Character drop October 2 13:00. Price around September 29 21:00 to September 30 05:00 created BOS Break of Structure up, then formed supply OB before impulsive bearish move. Chart shows current price 0.69733 testing just below that supply OB, with minor corrective retrace leg labeled near 0.69580 to 0.69763, indicating supply defending. We interpret supply OB as premium distribution where institutional sell orders resting, expecting rejection on re-test. We see high volume institutional distribution spike noted at bottom around October 2 13:00 with tall red volume bar, confirming distribution origin. 4-Order Block Demand - 0.69140 to 0.69320 Institutional Accumulation Green shaded zone labeled Order Block Demand Institutional Accumulation sits around 0.69140 to 0.69320, with SSL Hunt label below near 0.68950. That demand zone corresponds to last bearish H1 candles before bullish BOS around October 1 05:00 to 13:00. Price around October 1 13:00 to October 2 05:00 formed FVG residual imbalance needed purple zones around 0.69230 to 0.69550, then bounced from demand OB. Chart shows demand OB acting as accumulation base for corrective retrace scenario light blue arrow from 0.69410 FVG residual up to 0.69763 sensitive zone, then corrective retrace down toward demand OB. We read demand OB as discount accumulation where institutional buy orders resting, expecting support on pullback. We see MACD indicating negative momentum exhaustion before accumulation attempt noted at bottom, supporting demand defense. 5-HTF BSL Hunt Engaged - 0.70040 to 0.70130 High Liquidity Top left label says HTF BSL Hunt Engaged around 0.70040 to 0.70130 high, with BOS Break of Structure above. Price late September around September 29 21:00 spiked to 0.70040 high with long upper wick, sweeping buy side liquidity above 0.69950 equal highs, where buy stops rested. After BSL hunt, price created Order Block Supply around 0.69880 to 0.69990 and then CHOCH drop. We understand HTF BSL hunt as higher timeframe buy side liquidity taken to fuel bearish reversal. We mark 0.70130 as ultimate BSL pool that fueled entire distribution phase down to 0.69140 demand, covering about 99 pips. Current re-test near 0.69733 sensitive zone is secondary re-test of that BSL hunt zone lower edge.

6-SSL Hunt - 0.68950 Low Liquidity Pool Below Demand Bottom label says SSL Hunt below demand OB around 0.68950, with green demand OB above 0.69140 to 0.69320. Price around October 2 05:00 made low around 0.69230 then flushed slightly below before reclaim, indicating sell side liquidity sweep where sell stops below 0.69140 rested. Chart shows red bearish rejection scenario arrow targeting 0.68950 SSL Hunt final target below demand OB, indicating deeper liquidity seeking if demand OB fails. We interpret SSL hunt as fuel for bullish reversal, but also as final target for bearish distribution continuation. We mark 0.68950 as major SSL pool that remains untested fully, with corrective retrace scenario light blue arrow showing potential bounce from FVG residual 0.69410 down toward demand before SSL hunt. 7-BOS Break of Structure - Multi BOS Sequence Mapping Multiple BOS labels appear - top left BOS Break of Structure around September 29, left middle BOS around September 30, bottom middle BOS around October 1. First BOS September 29 around 0.69630 to 0.69800 broke above previous high, indicating bullish BOS leading to HTF BSL hunt at 0.70130. Second BOS September 30 around 0.69550 to 0.69700 broke above previous lower high, indicating continuation before supply formation. Third BOS October 1 around 0.69410 to 0.69630 broke above recent lower high after demand OB formation, indicating bullish attempt to reclaim. We read BOS sequence as bullish to bearish transition - bullish BOS up to supply, then bearish BOS down to demand. Current BOS around October 5 13:00 shows price breaking above 0.69630 minor high toward 0.69763, indicating bullish BOS within distribution re-test, but still below supply OB 0.69880. 8-CHOCH Change of Character - Bearish Shift Yellow label CHOCH Change of Character sits around October 2 13:00 near 0.69700, with purple trend line breaking. CHOCH marks shift from bullish to bearish after supply OB distribution. Price after making high around 0.69880 supply zone dropped with large red candle around October 2 13:00 down to 0.69410 FVG residual, breaking below recent higher low around 0.69630, confirming CHOCH bearish. We see CHOCH accompanied by high volume institutional distribution spike red volume bar around 4203 at bottom, confirming institutional selling at character change. We interpret CHOCH as early signal of distribution phase starting, with current price 0.69733 re-testing CHOCH origin as resistance. We expect bearish continuation while price holds below CHOCH level 0.69700 to 0.69800. MSS Market Structure Shift - Purple Mitigation Leg MSS Market Structure Shift label sits around September 30 13:00 to October 1 05:00 near 0.69550, with purple FVG Mitigation Leg above around 0.69550 to 0.69700. MSS indicates shift from bearish to bullish after demand OB formation? Actually chart shows MSS around 0.69550 where price broke above recent lower high after demand OB, indicating bullish MSS attempting recovery toward supply. Purple FVG Mitigation Leg around 0.69550 to 0.69700 shows residual imbalance where price mitigated before CHOCH. We read MSS as counter trend shift within larger bearish distribution, creating FVG residual imbalance needed purple zones around 0.69230 to 0.69550. Current price 0.69733 sits above MSS level, indicating bullish MSS still holding but facing supply resistance at 0.69880. FVG Fair Value Gap - Residual Imbalance and Mitigation Two FVG labels - FVG Mitigation Leg purple around 0.69550 to 0.69700 and FVG Residual Imbalance purple around 0.69230 to 0.69550 and FVG residual imbalance needed. Those FVGs formed during October 1 13:00 to October 2 05:00 bullish recovery after demand OB, leaving inefficiencies. Chart shows price around October 2 05:00 to 13:00 created bullish FVGs that were partially mitigated during October 2 13:00 CHOCH drop to 0.69410. Current price 0.69733 sits above upper FVG mitigation leg, indicating price reclaimed FVG after corrective retrace scenario light blue arrow from 0.69410 up to 0.69763. We interpret FVG residual imbalance around 0.69410 as support for corrective retrace bounce before bearish rejection. We mark lower FVG around 0.69230 to 0.69410 as key support if bearish rejection scenario plays toward demand OB. Corrective Retrace Scenario - Light Blue Arrow Path Light blue arrows show corrective retrace scenario - first arrow up from 0.69410 FVG residual to 0.69763 sensitive zone, second arrow down from 0.69763 toward demand OB around 0.69140. That scenario indicates price may correct up to re-test supply edge 0.69763 to 0.69880 before corrective pullback toward demand OB 0.69230 to 0.69410, then potentially bounce again. We see minor corrective retrace leg label near 0.69580 to 0.69763 with white arrow, showing small pullback within sensitive zone before bullish attempt to 0.69763. We interpret corrective retrace as liquidity rebalancing within distribution, where institutions accumulate short positions at premium before driving price toward discount demand. Minor Corrective Retrace Leg - 0.69580 to 0.69763 Micro Structure White arrow labeled Minor corrective retrace leg points to small pullback around 0.69580 to 0.69763 within current price action sensitive zone. Price around October 5 13:00 to 21:00 shows small red candles pulling back from 0.69763 high to 0.69580 low before bouncing back to 0.69733, indicating micro structure corrective move. That minor retrace leg forms equal highs around 0.69763, where buy stops above 0.69763 may rest for final BSL hunt before bearish rejection. We read minor retrace as building liquidity above 0.69763 for final sweep toward supply OB 0.69880 before bearish rejection scenario red arrow down. Bearish Power Exhaustion - MACD Negative Momentum Exhaustion Bottom label says MACD indicating negative momentum exhaustion before accumulation attempt. MACD panel shows MACD line 0.000512 and signal 0.000565 near zero, with white histogram bars below zero around -0.001175, indicating bearish momentum fading near zero, with red signal above histogram slightly. Earlier around October 1 05:00 MACD histogram was deeply negative around -0.001175, then recovered toward zero around October 2 13:00, indicating exhaustion of bearish momentum before bullish BOS. Currently MACD near zero around 0.69733 indicates neutral momentum, potential for bearish crossover if bearish rejection occurs. We interpret MACD exhaustion as sign of accumulation attempt at demand OB, but also as sign of distribution pause before bearish continuation. High Volume Distribution Spike - 4203 Volume Bar Analysis Bottom label says High Volume institutional distribution spike, pointing to tall red and green volume bars around October 2 13:00 with volume up to 4203. Volume panel shows tall red bar around September 29 BSL hunt and tall red bar around October 2 13:00 CHOCH, indicating institutional distribution at supply OB and at CHOCH. Current volume around October 5 13:00 to 21:00 shows green bars around 361 with small red bars, indicating low volume consolidation within sensitive zone, lacking buying interest for breakout above supply OB. We read low volume at current sensitive zone as sign of buyers exhaustion near premium, supporting bearish rejection scenario. We mark volume spike at 4203 as confirmation of supply OB origin. OTE Optimal Trade Entry - 62 to 79 Percent of 0.70040 to 0.69140 Range Fibonacci OTE using HTF BSL hunt high 0.70040 to demand OB low 0.69140 range, about 90 pips, calculates 62 percent retracement near 0.69700 and 79 percent near 0.69850, creating premium OTE short zone 0.69700 to 0.69850, aligning exactly with current price 0.69733 sensitive zone and supply OB 0.69880 lower edge and CHOCH level 0.69700. Premium OTE short zone represents high probability short entry within bearish distribution after HTF BSL hunt. Discount OTE long zone using same range 62 to 79 percent discount near 0.69470 to 0.69320, aligning with FVG residual imbalance 0.69410 and demand OB 0.69140 to 0.69320 upper edge and corrective retrace scenario target. Current price sits inside premium OTE short zone, indicating high probability bearish rejection entry zone. Confluence Execution Plan - Bearish Rejection Distribution with Variation Current confluence around 0.69733 sensitive zone shows multiple SMC confluences aligning for bearish rejection - premium OTE 62 to 79 percent short zone 0.69700 to 0.69850, supply OB 0.69880 to 0.69990, CHOCH origin 0.69700, equal highs 0.69763 BSL pool, minor corrective retrace leg building liquidity above, MACD near zero exhaustion, low volume consolidation, yellow? Actually purple trend line resistance. We define bias as bearish while price holds below supply OB 0.69880 to 0.69990 and below HTF BSL 0.70040, targeting sell side liquidity below. Short entry around current sensitive zone 0.69733 to 0.69763 re-test with stop above supply OB 0.69990 and above BSL 0.70040, about 20 to 35 pips risk on H1 AUDUSD. Targets TP1 0.69550 FVG mitigation leg, TP2 0.69410 FVG residual imbalance, TP3 0.69230 demand OB high and FVG residual low, TP4 0.69140 demand OB low and discount OTE, TP5 0.68950 SSL Hunt final, risk reward 1 to 1, 1 to 1.5, 1 to 2.2, 1 to 3, 1 to 3.8. Long reversal plan around demand OB 0.69140 to 0.69320 discount OTE plus SSL hunt defense plus FVG residual support, stop below 0.68950 SSL, about 20 to 30 pips risk, targeting TP1 0.69410 FVG residual, TP2 0.69550 FVG mitigation, TP3 0.69733 current sensitive zone, TP4 0.69880 supply OB. Confirmation via bearish CHOCH retest and volume red spike and MACD bearish crossover below zero and supply OB rejection wick, capital protection 0.8 percent risk per H1 trade, avoid holding large into AUD or USD high impact news like CPI RBA.