FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/JPY

I am currently focusing on the weekly margin control zone between 157.46 and 158.01 as the nearest upside objective on the H4 timeframe, because I see this area as a natural magnet for price before any larger directional decision is made. I view this zone as unfinished business for the market, since price often seeks such liquidity pools before committing to a stronger move. I recognize that the recent structure on H4 still technically allows for a continuation toward this zone, especially if buyers manage to maintain short-term control. I believe that the path toward this target could remain valid as long as local supports are not decisively broken and as long as the corrective pressure does not intensify. I also acknowledge that the formation of a bearish engulfing candlestick introduces a serious warning signal into my analysis, because I understand that such a pattern often marks the beginning of distribution rather than continuation. I interpret this engulfing candle as a potential shift in sentiment, even though I do not yet see confirmation of a full reversal. I remind myself that one candlestick alone does not define the trend, but I still treat it as an early sign that sellers are beginning to show strength. I pay close attention to whether the market respects this signal through follow-through selling or whether it invalidates it by reclaiming higher levels. I remain cautious because I know that price can still move upward into the MCZ while forming the early stages of a bearish setup. I understand that this creates a conflicting situation where the upside target remains technically valid while the bearish pressure is quietly building. I plan to watch how price behaves as it approaches the zone, because I expect that the reaction there will reveal whether this move is a final liquidity grab or a genuine continuation. I accept that the reversal structure has not yet fully formed, but I stay alert to the possibility that the market is preparing for a deeper downward phase.

I observe on the daily chart that since Thursday there has been notably strong buying activity, and I interpret this as a clear sign that buyers have been in control of the broader movement. I notice that even though there was intraday selling pressure, I see that this selling was absorbed rather than allowed to develop into a sustained decline. I understand that yesterday the seller attempted to push through the buyer’s initiative, but I recognize that the buyer ultimately managed to regain control and close the day slightly stronger than Thursday. I consider this behavior as evidence that the seller’s efforts so far have not produced any meaningful or lasting result. I pay attention to the selling candle visible on the left side of the chart, and I acknowledge that it once showed an attempt to overpower the buyer, yet I see that the market has not followed through with continued downside. I interpret this as a sign that the market is not ready to transition into a bearish phase despite visible selling attempts. I move to the hourly chart to refine my understanding, and I see that the buyer has effectively compressed price action just below the local high. I interpret this compression as pressure building for a potential breakout scenario. I recognize that the zone between 157.09 and 157.19 now acts as a critical decision area for further movement. I anticipate that a breakout above this range on Monday could trigger an impulsive continuation of the upward move. I also remain aware that before such a breakout, the market could perform a controlled pullback toward the 156.99 to 156.84 zone. I understand that this pullback would not necessarily invalidate the bullish structure but could instead serve as a liquidity collection before continuation. I stay attentive to how price behaves within these zones because I believe the reaction there will determine the short-term direction. I maintain a cautious optimism about further growth while recognizing the importance of monitoring buyer strength in these key areas.