FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I see GBP/USD printing a very complex structure where both buyer and seller have invested serious effort, and I read this as a market that is not trending cleanly but rather redistributing positions through absorption and pressure. I notice that the daily candles look visually weak in volume, yet they are doing heavy work internally by absorbing opposite-side orders, which tells me that what appears quiet on the surface is actually a battle underneath. I observe that Thursday’s strong selling candle should have logically continued the decline, yet Friday’s candle closed bullish with relatively poor volume, and I interpret this as a classic absorption signal where selling pressure was neutralized rather than expanded. I had expected the price to fall into the deeper buying zone between 1.3490 and 1.3425 before any meaningful rise, and I still keep this zone in mind as a magnet if sellers regain control on Monday. I see that the four-hour support at 1.3540 was broken but not accepted, and I read the stall near this level as a failure of sellers to hold territory, which often precedes a corrective rise. I build a Fibonacci retracement on the recent impulse and I note that price reacted precisely around the 38.2% level, confirming that the market is respecting technical structure even inside this messy price action. I admit that direction is not obvious here, because I can clearly see both the potential for a rejection and renewed decline, and the potential for a breakout that continues the local bullish correction.

I follow a simple rule in my trading where I wait for correction after an impulse and then trade in the direction of that impulse, and I believe this week’s 15% profit came from strictly following this discipline. I see that the pair already reached the full margin target zone at 1.3547–1.3515 where profits were logically taken, and I now read the current movement as a corrective phase rather than a new bullish trend. I observe that price remains below the fast moving average and is only hovering near the long-term one, and I interpret this positioning as weakness rather than strength. I notice RSI sitting in the neutral 45–50 zone, and I read this as fading selling pressure but not as evidence of buying dominance. I see MACD below zero even as the histogram contracts, and I take this as confirmation that bearish sentiment still controls the broader context. I keep my primary sell zone between 1.3650 and 1.3692, and I treat 1.3681–1.3688 as the key reaction range where sellers may re-enter the market on Monday. I understand that only a daily close above 1.3650 would force me to reconsider the bearish scenario and accept a shift toward bullish structure. I prepare for cautious buying only if price pulls back toward 1.3525–1.3545 after the rally, because I see that area as a safer entry within the correction, while my larger target for selling remains at 1.3423 if the bearish continuation resumes.