FX.co ★ Jackroay | CL/Crude Oil

I see the trading instrument testing the round 65 level on Wednesday, and I note how the price failed to consolidate above it before producing a modest rebound. I observe that the pullback is shallow because a strong support level sits below at 62.40, and I recognize how this level keeps buyers engaged even when momentum fades. I understand that, under normal midweek conditions, I would consider buying from this support with a target back toward 65, but I also acknowledge that the weekend context changes my approach. I factor in the geopolitical backdrop around Iran, and I accept that this theme can distort normal technical behavior in #CL. I assume that, unless there is a sharp deterioration in the situation, oil is unlikely to fall below 60, which keeps the broader structure constructive. I prepare for the possibility of a small gap down on Monday if the weekend remains calm, and I plan to react based on how price behaves around 62.40 at the open. I decide that if price holds above this level, I can look for immediate buying, while if we open lower, I will wait for consolidation before entering. I also consider short positions near 65, but I restrict this plan to a scenario where the news flow is quiet. I examine the M15 chart and I notice an intraday attempt to break north toward 65.80–66, which tells me that buyers are not giving up. I recognize that the 65.80–66 zone is applying pressure, yet I also see balance forming that could lead to another upward attempt if geopolitical conditions support it. I admit that a push to 66 or even toward 70 is technically possible, but I remain skeptical without a clear external catalyst.

I maintain that nothing has fundamentally changed in my view, and I continue to see price trapped in the tight 62–64 range that is unusually narrow for oil. I admit that I want to see further gains after the bullish US session rebound, but I restrain myself because the weekend introduces uncertainty. I watch closely for signals from Iran–US talks and I let that narrative guide my expectations for Monday’s open. I confess my frustration with the instrument’s recent performance, yet I keep monitoring Crude Light Sweet Oil because I still anticipate a decline. I acknowledge that multiple nuances influence the price of black gold, and I place US–Iran relations at the top of that list. I reason that if no shocks occur over the weekend, a bearish move could begin early next week. I update my working range from 66–62 to 65–62, and I pay more attention to how the H4 structure, which I call N4, prepares for a potential southern move. I feel that the market is not rushing downward, but I sense that the setup is quietly forming. I admit that I had hoped for moves toward 59 and 55 this week to position for buying, but I accept that this opportunity may come later. I treat 62.70, and more conservatively 62.00, as the key level whose break would signal a medium-term reversal. I expect that once this level is broken, the H4 and M30 will align with a downward slope, giving me not just a signal but a strong confirmation for bearish positioning.