FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I believe XAUUSD has clearly shifted the balance of power back to the bulls, and I see the recent rally as a continuation of the broader upward structure rather than just a short-term spike driven by headlines. I observe that gold closed the week around 5106 after confidently breaking and consolidating above the 5045 intraday benchmark, and I interpret that weekly close above 5100 as a technical confirmation of strength on the H4 timeframe. I note that the rally from the 4981–4982 region toward 5107 unfolded with strong momentum, and I recognize that although I did not participate in that move, I can still objectively evaluate its implications. I see the hourly trend as smooth and technically clean, and I acknowledge that the Fibonacci extensions at 5056 (161.8%), 5116 (261.8%), and 5208 (423.6%) provide a structured roadmap for potential continuation. I recognize that the first two targets have effectively been reached or tested, and I consider the 5200–5208 zone a realistic magnet if bullish sentiment persists into the new trading week. I also understand that the area around 5116–5118, which aligns with the 61.8% retracement on a broader swing, represents strong resistance, and I accept that a rejection there could trigger a corrective pullback. I remain aware that a decisive break below 4956 would invalidate my bullish scenario, and I would interpret such a move as a structural warning that sellers are regaining control. I also factor in the macro backdrop, including trade tensions associated with Donald Trump, and I see how tariff rhetoric and weaker-than-expected U.S. data have pressured the dollar and indirectly supported gold. I remain cautious about the possibility of a weekend gap, as I have seen similar behavior earlier this year, and I recognize that accelerated moves into the weekly close sometimes precede volatile openings.

I further analyze the daily timeframe and observe that gold recently climbed to a six-day high near 5088–5092 while retracing its 10-day and 20-day moving averages, and I interpret the convergence of those averages as a technical pivot zone that bulls have successfully reclaimed. I recall that the rally from the February low around 4402 marked the beginning of a powerful impulsive leg, and I recognize that the subsequent correction toward 4655 formed a lower low before the market resumed its upward structure. I see the formation of a higher low near 4842 as technically significant, and I interpret the developing ABCD structure as a constructive continuation pattern rather than a topping formation. I calculate that the measured move projection toward approximately 5345, which aligns with a 100% ABCD completion and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline, creates a strong confluence resistance zone, and I respect that area as a potential medium-term objective. I also acknowledge that the prior 21% decline appears to have exhausted itself at the intersection of long-term ascending channel support and the 50-day moving average, and I interpret the rebound from 4402 as confirmation that the broader uptrend remains structurally intact. I understand that volatility tied to geopolitical risks, including tensions around Iran and shifting global narratives, can amplify momentum in precious metals, and I incorporate that risk premium into my outlook. I remain disciplined by defining invalidation levels and recognizing that no breakout is guaranteed, but I conclude that as long as price holds above key structural supports and continues printing higher highs and higher lows, I must treat dips as corrective rather than reversal signals while remaining flexible enough to reassess if the structure decisively breaks.