FX.co ★ skinwalker | USD/JPY

USDJPY H4 Forecast On the four-hour chart, the USD/JPY pair is clearly trading within a well-defined supply and demand zone, indicating a limited but structurally biased market. The price recently bounced off a strong support line at 142.20-142.60 and then moved towards 145.00. It is currently facing an upper supply line that previously served as resistance. This supply line (at 145.00-145.80) has historically played a significant role in limiting upward momentum and should continue to be a key turning point for price action moving forward. The market structure exhibits a cyclical pattern of impulsive moves and corrective pullbacks. After a significant drop to 148.50 in early May, the price recovered and reached the demand zone lows between 142.20 and 142.60 in late May. At this low, a bullish impulse candlestick formed, characterized by a series of bullish candlesticks and a sharp breakout of the short-term sideways pattern formed in late May. The sharp rise in this candlestick and the increase in bullish candlesticks indicate a trend reversal in favor of the bulls. This uptrend is now reaching a significant resistance line and is testing the strength of the recently re-established uptrend. The trend structure over the past month has been neither clearly nor consistently bullish nor bearish, but there are signs of a trend reversal or the formation of an uptrend. The decline from a high of 148.50 to a low of 142.20 suggests that the market was previously in a sideways phase. However, the recent breakout of several inner peaks and strong moves above the moving averages, especially the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, are the first confirmations of a trend reversal. The price remained above the middle Bollinger Band during the correction and then broke the upper band, indicating strong buying pressure and the potential for continuation. This new structure is based on a key price level. The latest support is at 144.00, the previous resistance level and breakout point of the current uptrend. If the uptrend continues, a drop to this level could attract more buying. Below this level, the key demand zone between 142.20 and 142.60 provides a structural base and bullish reversal point. As long as this demand zone holds, the medium-term bullish outlook is positive. Conversely, the next bullish resistance level is at 145.80 and 146.50, the previous bearish reversal point. A breakout and close above this level would pave the way for a retest of the supply zone at 148.00 and 148.50, where sellers are once again making a strong rally. Technically, the stock price is showing signs of recovery and a breakout. After finding support in the weak demand zone, the price fluctuated around the moving averages, reflecting the uncertainty in the market. This range eventually reversed upwards and signaled an exit. This series of lower lows indicates buying, and a strong rally in this area confirms the bullish breakout scenario. These moves usually lead to a continuation of the uptrend, especially when supported by a clear break above the resistance line and a strong price action that closes above the previous high. Momentum indicators also confirm the current bullish structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upwards and is hovering around 64-65, just below the overbought zone. This suggests that upward pressure may continue before a downtrend begins. The Stochastic Oscillator is indicating a short-term correction or sideways movement in the overbought zone, especially near the resistance line. However, this does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal, but rather a temporary decline or a sharp correction. The MACD chart and signal line are pointing upwards, indicating bullish momentum and confirming that bullish momentum is currently dominant. In short, the USD/JPY pair is moving into a bullish trading range structure supported by a series of higher lows, a bounce of the major moving average and a resistance break. The 144.00 area is currently an immediate support and potential retest area, while the 145.80-146.50 area is the next major resistance level that needs to be broken to resume the uptrend. A sustained break of this area could confirm a reversal of the medium-term trend and turn the attention to the 148.50 high. However, if the price fails to break above 144.00, especially if it falls to 142.20, the bullish structure could be broken and the pair could either return to the trading range or undergo a correction. The current structure is bullish and the trend is expected to continue until the next resistance level is confirmed.