FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/CHF

I am currently observing that the USD/CHF pair is trading near 0.7710, and I see that the bears are gradually attempting to push the market further in their favor as downside pressure continues to build. I am analyzing the daily chart using the wave technique, and I recognize that we initially experienced a prolonged sideways consolidation phase, which eventually resulted in a decisive breakout to the downside. I interpret this breakout as the formation of a clear first bearish impulse wave, which I believe has already established the dominant direction of the broader move. I now see that the market is undergoing a corrective phase, and I identify this correction as resembling an ascending channel that is developing against the primary downward trend. I notice that price is currently hovering near the lower boundary of this ascending structure, and according to the pendulum principle, I understand that a technical rebound toward the upper boundary around 0.7818 is possible. I acknowledge that such a bounce could occur as part of the corrective wave dynamics, yet I am not willing to initiate long positions at this stage because I remain cautious about the overall bearish context. I believe that this ascending channel may ultimately serve as a continuation pattern within the larger decline, and I recognize that at any moment the market could invalidate short-term bullish attempts and resume its southern trajectory. I am also examining the Ichimoku Cloud, and I see that it currently reflects a bearish configuration with a relatively strong structure that supports the dominant trend. I observe that the terminal portion of the cloud appears to be narrowing toward zero, and I understand that such compression may precede a potential shift in sentiment; however, I still see the baseline indicator clusters positioned on the bearish side, which reinforces my cautious stance and keeps me aligned with the prevailing downward bias.

I am currently focusing on the USDCHF currency pair and I see a clear selling opportunity developing on the H1 timeframe, where I believe the market structure is beginning to favor the bears after failing to establish sustained momentum to the upside. I am planning to initiate a short position around the 0.7715 level, as I consider this area to be a favorable intraday resistance zone where price may struggle to break higher, especially if sellers step in with renewed pressure. I am placing my protective stop order beyond 0.7749 because I want to give the trade enough room to fluctuate naturally while still protecting my capital in case the market invalidates my bearish scenario with a decisive bullish breakout. I am managing my risk carefully and I am committing to only one entry for today, because I want to maintain discipline and avoid overtrading in volatile intraday conditions. I am planning to close half of my position once the trade reaches +34 pips in profit, as I want to secure partial gains and reduce emotional pressure while allowing the rest of the position to run. I am then planning to close half of the remaining position after another 34 pips move in my favor, because I believe scaling out gradually helps me lock in profits while still participating in a potentially extended bearish move. I am finally intending to close the remaining portion of the trade after the next 34 pips, as I prefer structured profit-taking rather than attempting to predict an exact bottom. I am basing this strategy on the current bearish intraday momentum in USDCHF, and I am prepared to adapt only if price action clearly invalidates my outlook.