FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I start my new analysis of USD/JPY from the H4 timeframe, where I clearly see a developing triangle structure and current price action hovering around 154.90–154.95. I observe that the pair rebounded earlier from the 152.30–152.35 demand zone, and I interpret that move as the completion of a corrective bearish phase followed by the beginning of a new recovery wave. I believe that the second wave of corrective growth is still unfolding, and I see that the structure does not yet look technically complete. I notice that the compression inside the triangle suggests energy accumulation, and I interpret this as preparation for a stronger directional move. I expect that as long as the price remains above the 153.80–154.00 intraday support region, buyers will retain short-term control. I project that if bullish pressure continues to build, the pair may attempt to test the upper boundary of the triangle near 156.00, which I consider a key resistance confluence zone. I recognize that a breakout and consolidation above 155.55 would strengthen the bullish case and weaken the probability of an immediate southern expansion. I also understand that failure to hold above 155.55 after any breakout attempt could signal a false move and open the path for renewed downside pressure. I remain cautious because I see conflicting signals across timeframes, and I acknowledge that triangle environments often produce false breakouts before the real expansion begins.

I then shift my focus to the H1 chart, where I observe a clearly defined ascending channel formed after multiple failed attempts by sellers to break below 152.35. I note that bears tested that low five times without success, and I interpret this repeated defense as evidence of strong underlying demand. I see that price is currently trading near the mid-to-upper portion of the channel around 154.94, and I believe that short-term pullbacks remain possible before any further expansion. I expect that a controlled decline toward the lower boundary of the channel around 154.50–154.60 would be technically healthy, and I view that zone as a potential rebound area if bullish structure remains intact. I plan to closely monitor volume behavior near 154.79 and 155.55 because I believe these levels will determine whether liquidity is being absorbed for continuation or distribution. I recognize that liquidity appears heavier below the current price, and I understand that market makers may attempt to drive price downward to collect that liquidity before initiating a stronger upward wave. I therefore remain patient, and I prefer waiting for a confirmed reaction either from 154.50 support or from a decisive breakout above 155.55. I conclude that while short-term fluctuations may continue, I still see potential for an upward extension toward 156.00 unless structural support fails decisively.