FX.co ★ AB2 | GOLD,XAUUSD ANALYSIS

XAU/USD

As global concerns and hawkish Fed predictions keep the US dollar widely supported, gold gains are still constrained. Concerns about inflation fueled by energy are rekindled by US-Iran tensions. Technically, the upside of XAU/USD is limited below the 20-day Bollinger middle range, and it is still in a corrective phase. After three days of losses, gold (XAU/USD) gained ground on Thursday thanks to a slightly weaker US dollar (USD) and a little decline in US Treasury

of this writing, XAU/USD is up 1.16% for the day at about $4,123. However, the market's predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates are reinforced by the ongoing wars in the Middle East, which raise fears about energy-driven inflation and restrict gold's upside. Overnight, the US and Iran launched yet another wave of assaults. "This is retaliation for yesterday's bombing of ships by Iran," US President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social. It will grow much worse if it occurs again. Iran reaffirmed its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz in the event of further strikes on Wednesday, heightening worries that global oil shipments, which had improved after last month's interim ceasefire accord, may be hampered once again. Despite some intraday losses, the most recent escalation has damaged risk sentiment and undermined chances for a long-term peace deal, keeping the US dollar (USD) solidly supported. After hitting an intraday low of 100.79, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is currently trading around

the meantime, the USD is receiving more support due to hawkish Fed predictions. Markets are pricing in a 63% probability of a rate rise at the September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Gold often suffers from higher borrowing rates due to the metal's lack of return.