FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to demonstrate a steady upward trajectory, maintaining its bullish dominance across multiple timeframes. Currently, USD/JPY is trading near the key resistance zone around 153.00–153.20, which coincides with the daily fractal target at 153.27. This level remains a pivotal point for market participants, as it may determine the pair’s medium-term direction. The bullish structure remains intact, supported by strong price action above the Ichimoku Cloud, as well as the alignment of the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen below the current market price, signaling sustained buying pressure. Moreover, USD/JPY shows that the Senkou Span A remains above Senkou Span B, reinforcing the pair’s medium-term bullish bias. The Chikou Span still hovers above both price and cloud, indicating that the pair maintains its bullish structure; however, its flattening trajectory hints at potential momentum exhaustion. On the H1 chart, USD/JPY continues consolidating around 152.85–152.91, with repeated tests of this resistance zone but no decisive breakout yet. The OBV indicator suggests mild accumulation, meaning that while buying interest exists, it is not yet strong enough to support a sustained breakout. A confirmed close above 152.912 with an increase in volume could open the way for USD/JPY to advance toward the psychological levels of 153.20–153.50. However, in case of rejection, a short-term corrective pullback may occur toward the Tenkan-sen near 152.70 or the Kijun-sen around 152.55, where initial support is expected to form before any potential continuation higher.

From a broader perspective, the daily chart of USD/JPY shows that the bullish momentum has persisted since late May, with the pair appreciating more than 1,100 pips from the 142.00 region to recent highs around 153.20. This sharp rise demonstrates the underlying strength of the U.S. dollar against the yen, largely driven by the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite a brief pullback following weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data, USD/JPY quickly recovered, as buyers stepped in to defend lower levels, reflecting the persistent weakness of the yen. The pair’s upcoming moves will be heavily influenced by the Fed and BoJ meetings next week, which could provide the catalyst for a breakout or a corrective reversal. If USD/JPY consolidates above the 153.27 fractal resistance, the next bullish target lies around 154.00–154.60. However, if the price fails to hold above 153.27 and reverses, traders should not rush into short positions until at least three reversal confirmations appear, including a liquidity raid and a clear close below 152.24, which would signal the start of a deeper correction. In such a bearish case, USD/JPY could decline toward 150.20 or even the 149.00 zone, where the previous local highs may act as strong support within the broader ascending daily channel. Nonetheless, as long as USD/JPY remains above the cloud and continues forming higher highs and higher lows, the dominant bullish trend remains intact, with traders focusing on long setups until clear reversal signals emerge.