FX.co ★ Japan Coincident Index Revised Lower

In November 2025, Japan's coincident economic index—a critical measure reflecting factory output, employment, and retail sales—was recorded at 114.9. This figure marks a slight decrease from the preliminary estimate of 115.2 and the October level of 115.9. Despite being lower than expected, the index still suggests a moderate economic recovery, buoyed by improvements in employment and household income. Nevertheless, the economic outlook faces increasing risks, mainly due to uncertainties regarding potential changes in U.S. trade policy. Additionally, ongoing cost pressures continue to exert a negative impact on private consumption.

From a monetary perspective, the Bank of Japan maintained its short-term policy rate at the same level in October, keeping borrowing costs at their peak since 2008 and extending the pause after the rate hike in January. However, the central bank indicated its readiness to consider further gradual tightening, contingent upon continued strengthening of economic activity and inflation.