FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | EUR/USD

EUR/USD H4 Timeframe: On the H4 chart of the EUR/USD pair, the price is currently hovering around 1.1626, indicating a consolidation phase following strong bearish pressure in recent weeks. The main trend remains in a downtrend, as reflected by the 100-EMA (blue line) positioning below the 200-EMA (red line), indicating that sellers still dominate the medium- to long-term momentum. Previously, the price rebounded from a strong support area around 1.1559, which had been tested several times and proven to be a key resistance zone for buyers. From there, EUR/USD attempted an upward correction, but this effort was limited as the price was unable to break through the dynamic resistance area around the 200-EMA, which is adjacent to the static resistance zone at 1.1670–1.1700. As long as the price moves below this area, the potential for a continuation of the bearish trend remains greater than a long-term reversal.

If buying pressure can push the price through and maintain above 1.1670, it will open up the potential for strengthening towards the next resistance area at 1.1779. This level is a key psychological point, as in the past it has often been a significant reaction point between buyers and sellers. Meanwhile, if bullish momentum fails to continue and the price weakens again, the 1.1599 area will be the first test point. A break below this level would open up room for a decline towards the key support area at 1.1542, or even as far as 1.1530, the lowest level in recent weeks. Overall, the current price structure still indicates bearish dominance, but the potential for an upward technical correction should be anticipated. Traders can consider a sell-on-rally approach as long as the price remains below the 1.1670 area, with additional confirmation from a rejection candlestick signal around the 200-EMA. Conversely, if the price successfully breaks through and maintains above this zone, the short-term strategy could shift to buy-on-breakouts with targets towards 1.1779 and 1.1849. Thus, the current EUR/USD condition represents a transitional phase between a potential reversal and a continuation of the downtrend, where risk management and confirmation of technical signals are key aspects before taking a position.