FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/JPY

I see that the quotes are currently demonstrating a strong and well-defined upward trend, and I interpret this structure as technically healthy despite the recent corrective decline. I consider the ongoing downward correction to be a natural pause within the trend rather than a sign of reversal, and I believe it creates conditions where buying can be justified even from relatively current price levels. I think that entering long positions with a stop of around 1,500 points makes sense from a risk-management perspective, especially if the trade is aligned with the dominant trend. I also see strong logic in targeting a profit of 3,000 to 3,200 points, as this provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and allows room for trend continuation. I believe that the confirmation for such a scenario would be a breakout above the recent high at 158.880, and I view this level as a key trigger that would reinforce bullish control. I prefer trading in the direction of the prevailing trend, and I note that at the moment there are no clear technical sell signals that would justify aggressive short positions. I also find it notable that this appears to be one of the few major currency pairs where the dollar continues to show strong upward movement despite broader signs of dollar weakness across the market. I interpret this divergence as evidence that the Japanese yen is under even stronger pressure than the US dollar. I think that the yen’s relative weakness is currently the dominant fundamental driver supporting the uptrend in USD/JPY. I remain focused on the idea that pullbacks should be treated as opportunities rather than threats, and I am inclined to use downside corrections to add to long positions. I also remain aware that this bullish bias is valid only as long as no strong downward momentum develops. I conclude that until the market shows clear signs of distribution or a decisive bearish impulse, maintaining a buy-on-dips strategy in line with the uptrend remains the most rational and disciplined approach.

I see USD/JPY in a genuinely difficult technical position right now, and I think the main issue is the lack of directional follow-through after several important signals appeared on the chart. I note that the breakout above the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the H4 timeframe near 156.50 initially looked convincing, and I considered it a strong opportunity for buyers to accelerate the upward move. I observe, however, that the price failed to develop this breakout, and I interpret the quick rollback below this level as a clear sign of weakness and hesitation among buyers. I also pay close attention to the fact that the market has tested the 200-period moving average for the second time in a relatively short period, and I view this as a warning signal that selling pressure is increasing despite the broader uptrend structure. I believe that when a market repeatedly revisits such a dynamic support level, it often reflects uncertainty and internal conflict between trend followers and countertrend traders. I notice that even though buyers technically had the advantage after breaking the 61.8% resistance, they were unable to push the price higher, and I interpret this as a lack of strong demand at current levels. I think this behavior suggests that larger participants may be distributing positions rather than accumulating them. I also consider the possibility that the uptrend is losing momentum, even if it has not yet been formally broken. I remain cautious because I understand that false breakouts around Fibonacci levels are common in corrective phases. I conclude that the situation, while complex, is not chaotic, and I believe it is solvable with patience and discipline. I am convinced that waiting for a more decisive move, either a strong bullish continuation above recent highs or a clear bearish breakdown below the moving average, is the most rational approach before making any aggressive trading decisions.