FX.co ★ Ambar Hassan | USD/CHF

A week ago, I conducted an analysis that pointed toward a price decline, and I specifically targeted a quote of 0.76019. Throughout the entire trading week, however, I watched the price action closely, and I noted that it didn't even come close to hitting that target. I observed that the week was filled with messy and indecisive candles, which I often refer to as "dirty," but despite the lack of clarity, I could see that the overall movement was bullish. This immediate price behavior has forced me to reconsider my short-term expectations, though I haven't abandoned my broader outlook. I am fully aware that the global downward trend has been in place since 2002, and I have been tracking this prolonged decline on the chart for years. I can see how the price flattened out for an extended period, and I recognize that this consolidation was merely a pause before the downtrend resumed. When I look at the historical context, I am reminded that these long-term trends can be persistent, and I believe everything I am seeing still points to further downward movement in the bigger picture

Nevertheless, I have come to the conclusion that I need to be much more careful in my approach right now. I am observing that the market is currently flat on many pairs, and I feel that this lack of profitability is a significant warning sign. I sense that the markets are coiling, and I am convinced they are clearly preparing for a major move, though I cannot be certain of the direction. When I check the sentiment of other traders at the time of writing, I find it striking that only 20 percent are selling while a massive 80 percent are buying. I interpret this extreme imbalance with caution, as I know that crowded trades often lead to sharp reversals. I have to factor this sentiment into my own analysis, and I am weighing it against the bearish macro structure I trust. I am reminded that in such uncertain conditions, my risk management must be impeccable. I will not abandon my bearish thesis lightly, but I am prepared to wait for a clearer signal. I understand now more than ever that patience is key, and I must let the market prove itself before I commit to a position. I am watching the price action diligently, and I am ready to adapt as new information unfolds.