FX.co ★ Ambar Hassan | USD/JPY

As I observe the markets today with the start of a new trading week, I can see that a decline has indeed begun, and I am focusing my analysis on the USD/JPY pair. I note the current quote is sitting at 154.53, and I am applying the wave technique to the daily chart to interpret the movements I see. I am looking first at the MA100, and I can see it is working its way through the area at what I consider a modest trend angle of just twenty degrees. From this, I determine that the sentiment during the week, based on this indicator, is one of buying, though I am cautious about its shallow slope. I then turn my attention to the MA18, and I watch as it currently approaches the MA100 from top to bottom. I am convinced it is clearly intending to cross it from top to bottom, and I brace myself for the resulting dead cross, which I interpret as a definitive sell signal Furthermore, I analyze the Ichimoku Cloud, and I see it is currently colored for a sell-off, which confirms my bearish bias. As I look ahead on the chart, I notice the cloud is attempting to extend the decline, and I observe it increasing its body mass in favor of the south. I am certain that a switch to the bullish side is definitely not expected here based on this formation. I also take a step back and consider the broader pattern; I drew guidelines along the peaks of the trading zigzags myself, and I am pleased to see they have resulted in a clear ascending channel. From the screenshot I am referencing, I can confirm that the ascending channel is being worked out quite clearly. I note that the lower channel boundary has now been explored, and I watch as the price has been trading on it for a while before heading upward. I realize that the price only managed to reach the initial resistance level, and from there, I am now witnessing an attempt to stabilize the decline

As I dig deeper into my analysis, I incorporate the basement indicator pairs, and they are also indicating a bearish trend to me. I calculate the first estimated support level based on all these factors, and I place it at 153.24. I am synthesizing all these observations to form a coherent outlook. I believe the convergence of these signals—the impending dead cross, the bearish cloud, and the rejection from resistance—points to a significant shift. I am preparing for potential further downside as the week progresses. I consider the price's recent behavior at the channel boundary and its subsequent failure to break higher as a key moment. I think this confirms the selling pressure I am seeing in the indicators. I am now watching to see if the price can stabilize above the support I identified, or if it will break through and accelerate the decline. I am mindful that in trading, every signal must be weighed, and I am doing just that with the information I have gathered today. I feel that the technical picture is painting a compelling story of a market at a turning point.