FX.co ★ Ambar Hassan | EUR/USD

I will likely maintain my bearish outlook today as I analyze the EURUSD pair, which is currently trading at 1.1830. When I examine the daily chart using my preferred wave technique, I see several indicators that guide my perspective. I always start by looking at the moving averages because they give me a clear sense of the market's rhythm and momentum. I notice that the MA100 is moving clearly parallel to the floor, and I interpret this as a sign that the market has been in a flat mood throughout the week. I find this horizontal movement significant because it tells me that we are not in a strong trend, but rather in a period of consolidation where prices are struggling to find direction I then turn my attention to the MA18, and I see an interesting story unfolding here. I observe that this moving average initially played very well on the bullish side, and I remember how it managed to cross the key moving average from the bottom up, creating what I recognize as a golden cross. I consider this a classic buy signal in my methodology, and I note how it briefly gave hope to the bulls. However, I am now seeing a bearish slope in my ongoing analysis, and I can clearly see that the light moving average is currently trending downward at what I estimate to be a 30-degree angle. I interpret this shift in slope as a significant change in sentiment, and I believe it indicates a quite sell-off mood during this trading session. As I study the chart below, I notice that all candles have managed to consolidate between these two moving averages, and I recognize this pattern as a textbook example of a sideways trend. In this context, I fully expect the pendulum rule to play out, which in my experience means we will likely bounce off the 18-mark MA and then go lower, eventually testing the 100-mark MA at my estimated target of 1.1680

I also incorporate the Ichimoku Cloud into my comprehensive analysis, and I see that it is currently showing bullish signals. However, when I look closely at the screenshot, I can see that this bullish momentum will not last long. I observe how almost immediately after any bullish move, the price reverses back to the bears, and I take this as another confirmation that we are essentially in a sideways trend. I use this information to reinforce my bearish conviction, as I see the failure of bullish momentum to sustain itself. Based on all these factors I have considered, I calculate my estimated support level at 1.1680, and I feel confident in my bearish stance for today's trading session.