FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

On the D1 chart of the EURUSD currency pair, the wave structure is forming an upward pattern, with the MACD indicator rising in the overbought zone and above its signal line. The chances of a decline were weak after the price broke above the descending resistance line and held above it. For several days in a row, it traded above it with slight pullbacks. It now seems that this was just to gather more sellers and push the price higher. The price has been strengthening rapidly recently, not only due to the weakening of the US dollar against the euro but also against other major world currencies. Weak US data and a decrease in interest rates negatively impacted the dollar. The uptrend may be nearing its end, leading to a downward correction as the key horizontal resistance level at 1.1744 has been reached. This level, where previous support turned into resistance, initiated a decline since early October. Additionally, overlaying the Fibonacci target grid on the initial wave shows that the 161.8 level has almost been reached. There is a high probability of profit-taking in this area, leading to a corrective pullback towards the nearest level at 1.1671 based on closing prices. Looking at a higher weekly timeframe, three consecutive peaks close to each other, known as the "three Indians," can be observed. This is a significant sign of a potential resumption of the downward movement, possibly indicating that the current upward retracement since early November is the second wave before the third downward wave. Following a prolonged uptrend since the beginning of 2025, a deeper correction could be expected, for instance, drawing a corrective model consisting of three weekly waves with the price dropping below the 1.1400 mark. This could happen if the current rise halts around this level and a new downward wave begins. One can anticipate a shift on a smaller timeframe and consider trading downwards on a pullback, preferably no less than on the H4 chart for this transition to occur.