FX.co ★ absh kaat | EUR/USD

I am currently uncertain whether the price will even reach the higher levels that some traders are targeting, and I find myself reflecting on how the recent price behavior resembles a pattern I have seen before on EUR/USD. I have observed over the past month a slow and controlled price decline, and I recognize this type of movement as a gradual distribution phase rather than an impulsive sell-off. I notice that the latest upward movement feels very similar to what I saw previously when the instrument was fluctuating around the 1.1856 area before eventually continuing its descent. I am deliberately avoiding buying at current levels because I do not see strong confirmation of bullish continuation, and I am equally hesitant to initiate short positions because I lack a clear breakdown signal. I am carefully studying the oscillators, and I see that they are still pointing upward, which suggests that the pair could extend its corrective rise in the short term. I am simultaneously watching the moving averages, and I observe that they are beginning to turn downward, which often signals underlying bearish pressure building beneath the surface. I am preparing myself for the possibility that after a limited upward movement, the EUR/USD pair could resume its decline toward the 1.1795 zone. I am analyzing the hourly timeframe closely, and I expect that if the bearish scenario unfolds, the price will likely move gradually from one intraday reversal zone to another rather than collapsing sharply. I am interpreting the current structure as a slow slide scenario, where momentum shifts subtly while volatility remains moderate. I am remaining patient because I understand that unclear market conditions require disciplined positioning. I am focusing on confirmation signals, and I am ready to react once the price either firmly rejects higher levels or decisively breaks below near-term support.

I am continuing the discussion on EUR/USD with a broader technical reflection on the volatile years of 2020, 2021, and 2022, and I see how dramatically market structure shifted during this period. I remember how in 2020 the pair reacted strongly to the global shock triggered by the pandemic, and I observed how the policy actions of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve created massive liquidity that pushed EUR/USD into a strong bullish recovery after the March collapse. I noticed that throughout mid-2020 I could clearly identify higher highs and higher lows on the weekly timeframe, and I relied heavily on dynamic support from moving averages to guide my bullish bias. I observed that in 2021 I began to see exhaustion near the 1.23–1.24 zone, and I recognized the formation of distribution structures that signaled weakening momentum. I paid close attention to RSI divergence on the daily chart, and I interpreted it as an early warning of a coming trend reversal. I saw that as the Federal Reserve shifted toward tightening rhetoric in late 2021, I adjusted my outlook and prepared for increased dollar strength. I experienced 2022 as a fundamentally driven bearish year for EUR/USD, and I followed the aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve while I compared them with the slower response from the European Central Bank. I watched price break long-term support levels, and I identified strong impulsive waves to the downside that confirmed bearish control. I tracked parity as a psychological level, and I observed how volatility expanded as price approached and temporarily broke below 1.00. I relied on multi-timeframe confluence, and I combined structure, momentum, and macro fundamentals to guide my trades. I concluded that these three years reshaped the long-term technical landscape of EUR/USD, and I continue to adapt my strategy based on volatility cycles, institutional flows, and evolving monetary policy expectations.