FX.co ★ Jackroay | EUR/USD

I see that EUR/USD has shifted its downside target toward 1.1700, and I have adjusted my positioning accordingly after closing my longs from 1.1842–1.1818 and initiating a small short in line with the emerging medium-term bearish outlook. I believe that the broader structure is starting to favor sellers, especially as price action on the four-hour timeframe remains below the moving average and under the Ichimoku cloud, which I interpret as confirmation of a developing downward bias. I notice that the MACD is still pointing lower, and although I see the histogram narrowing—which I read as waning bearish momentum—I still interpret the overall configuration as pressure building for another leg down. I also observe that the CCI has crossed above zero, and while I recognize this as a short-term bullish signal, I treat it as corrective strength within a broader bearish framework rather than a reversal. I think the 1.1800 level is psychologically important, and I expect that if bears manage to push decisively below it, momentum could accelerate toward 1.1700 before September. I also factor in short-term bond yields, and although I know many traders overlook them, I believe shifts in yield spreads subtly influence capital flows and therefore the euro’s direction. I remain cautious because I have seen how price rebounded from 1.1804, likely sweeping stops on both sides, and I recognize that such liquidity grabs can distort technical clarity even on news-free days.

I observe on the daily timeframe that the market is still trapped in indecision, and I interpret Tuesday’s small-bodied candlestick with a long lower shadow as a sign of rejection of lower prices but not yet a commitment to sustained upside. I note that the close at 1.1854 keeps price inside a broader consolidation band, and I find it difficult to assign high conviction to either direction while we remain in this range. I see that the MA100 is moving almost horizontally, and I interpret this as confirmation of a weekly flat structure, while I notice that the MA18 has crossed above it, suggesting short-term bullish bias within a sideways regime. I expect that the “pendulum” behavior between these averages could lead to another decline toward the MA100 near 1.1730 before any decisive breakout. I also analyze the Ichimoku cloud and interpret the prolonged compression within it as a sign of equilibrium that could precede a stronger expansion phase. I recognize that hourly Fibonacci projections at 1.1934, 1.2013, and 1.2142 present upside scenarios, and although I believe the 161.8% extension is the most realistic near-term objective, I still prioritize the broader bearish scenario unless price firmly reclaims higher resistance zones. I remain flexible, but I currently align my bias with selling rallies while monitoring for a confirmed structural shift.