FX.co ★ HNB | USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair remains a focal point of technical debate as we enter late February 2026, currently trading near the **0.7720** pivot. This level, which previously served as a stubborn resistance barrier, has now transitioned into a potential structural support zone, offering a strategic entry point for those anticipating a bullish mean-reversion. Despite the broader multi-year downtrend that saw the pair touch 14-year lows near 0.7629 in January, a local ascending channel has begun to take shape on the four-hour chart. A successful retest and hold of the **0.7720** handle would reinforce the lower boundary of this channel, effectively creating a technical "reversal zone" that could propel the dollar toward the **0.7780–0.7790** range. This short-term rally is fundamentally underpinned by the recent "hawkish tilt" in the January FOMC minutes, which revived speculation that the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle if U.S. labor data remains resilient, contrasting with the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) commitment to an accommodative 0% rate. However, the path to a full recovery is far from clear. I am closely monitoring the price gap between **0.7748** and **0.7800**, as well as the formidable dynamic resistance near **0.7920**, where the 200-day moving average currently resides. While momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD on the smaller timeframes are flashing signs of renewed buying pressure—prompting a temporary suspension of aggressive short strategies—the Swiss Franc continues to draw significant safe-haven support from the escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. If the price fails to stabilize above **0.7740**, a swift retracement to the **0.7690** weekly low is likely. Currently, the convergence of the 13-day and 50-day moving averages suggests a tightening coil; a decisive break above the **0.7747** level would confirm a structural shift within the daily wedge pattern, potentially opening the door for a medium-term target of **0.7852** to **0.7864**. Turning to the daily chart for long-term confirmation, the rise in trading volume alongside a building Commodity Channel Index (CCI) signal suggests that institutional accumulation may be occurring at these decade-low levels. I interpret the current price action as a healthy corrective pullback within a rebuilding bullish phase rather than a continuation of the primary downtrend. To manage risk effectively, I am waiting for a clean daily close above **0.7791** before expanding long positions, while maintaining strict stop-loss orders below the **0.7710** threshold. While the negative sentiment surrounding the U.S. dollar—fueled by the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and a soft 1.4% GDP print—remains a headwind, the "yield appeal" of the dollar at 3.50% compared to the 0% Swiss franc should eventually provide the necessary fuel for a sustained rally toward the 0.7900 handle.