FX.co ★ Quee | XAU/USD, GOLD

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF GOLD (XAU/USD) H4. Gold is trading around 4615.66 on the H4 timeframe, with the latest candle showing an open near 4607.93, a high of 4640.84, a low of 4594.85, and a close/current price around 4615.66. The chart presents a significant transformation in market structure: after an extended bearish phase from the April–June highs, price established a strong accumulation base around the 4000–4100 region and has since produced a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. This shift indicates that sellers are gradually losing control while buyers are gaining momentum. The most important technical development is the aggressive recovery from the 4000 area, followed by a sustained move above the short-term red moving average and then above the longer-term blue and green moving averages. The red moving average has turned decisively upward, while the previously declining blue and green averages have flattened and begun to curve higher, suggesting that the medium-term trend is transitioning from bearish to bullish. Price is now testing a major resistance zone around 4615–4640, where the latest H4 candle reached approximately 4640.84. A confirmed H4 close above 4640–4650 would strengthen the bullish breakout structure and could open the path toward the next psychological and technical resistance at 4725–4730, followed by 4825–4830 and potentially 4920–4930. On the downside, immediate support is located around 4595–4600, followed by 4525, while the stronger dynamic support zone sits near 4420–4440, where the rising red moving average currently provides additional protection. The improving price structure, upward-moving short-term average, and increasing participation visible in the volume bars support a continuation scenario, although the sharpness of the recent rally means a temporary pullback or profit-taking correction remains possible. Fundamentally, gold remains sensitive to expectations surrounding global interest rates, U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, inflation expectations, central-bank demand, and geopolitical risk. Any combination of softer rate expectations, declining real yields, renewed safe-haven demand, or dollar weakness could provide additional fuel for the upside. Conversely, stronger U.S. economic data, rising yields, or a stronger dollar could temporarily pressure gold and trigger a retest of lower supports.

From a trading perspective, the preferred bias is bullish above 4590–4600, but chasing the market directly into resistance carries greater risk. The higher-probability strategy is to wait for either a controlled pullback toward 4595–4610 followed by a bullish H4 rejection, or a decisive H4 candle close above 4640–4650 and then trade the subsequent breakout/retest. A conservative long entry can therefore be considered around 4600–4610 after confirmation, with an alternative breakout entry above 4650 following a successful retest of the former resistance zone as support. For the pullback setup, a protective stop-loss around 4545–4550 keeps risk below the immediate breakout structure and below the 4525 support area. Initial profit should be targeted near 4725, offering approximately a 1:2 risk-to-reward profile depending on the exact entry, while a secondary target sits around 4825–4830. If momentum remains exceptionally strong and the 4825 region is decisively broken, the longer-term extension toward 4920–4930 becomes possible. Traders should monitor the 4640 level closely because rejection there could produce a corrective move toward 4525, and a sustained H4 close below 4525 would weaken the immediate bullish setup and expose the market to the 4420–4440 region. A deeper break below 4420 would invalidate the current continuation structure and indicate that the recent rally may have been a temporary recovery rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The 4600 and 4640 levels are therefore the key decision points: holding above 4600 keeps buyers in control, while a breakout through 4640 confirms renewed upside momentum. Psychological levels such as 4600, 4700, 4800, and 4900 should also be respected because large orders and profit-taking can cluster around round numbers. Overall, the H4 chart favors a bullish continuation scenario, supported by improving market structure, moving-average alignment, stronger momentum, and the successful recovery from the long-term base. The strongest trade plan is to buy a confirmed retest rather than enter emotionally after an extended candle, with TP1 at 4725, TP2 at 4825, and an extended target near 4925, while maintaining disciplined risk management and avoiding excessive leverage.