FX.co ★ Skull999 | EUR/USD

EURUSD Daily Forecast EUR/USD is slipping back down after the rebound that came after the Supreme Court of the United States decision didnt extend past the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the January rally at 1.1829. The pair is now close to 1.1770, which is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1769. This spot is also almost at the same level as the 50-day Simple Moving Average, thus making it a very significant short-term support area. The price action in this area of convergence will probably be the major indicator of whether the pair will stabilize or continue its downtrend. The lack and fading of directional bias is also mirrored by the momentum tools. The Relative Strength Index is slightly lower and has flattened under the 50 neutral level, which means that there is still some bullish pressure, but it is weakening. However, the RSI has not yet confirmed strong downside momentum. Besides, the stochastics look like they will make a comeback from the 20, oversold level, which means that the upward movement to be made will be very small. The signal of bounces is, however, faint, and follow-up is not significant. On the fundamental side, the euro was the chief beneficiary when the ruling was made that tariff actions that had been brought about by Donald Trump were executive power abuses. Nevertheless, that fresh breath of air did not last for long. Trump retaliated by banning globally 10% and later 15% under the Trade Act of 1974; the uncertainty about the trade policy and import costs has once again been reignited. The initial dollar selling was so quick that the immediate EUR/USD has subsequently. Technically, if the price were to break below the 50-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci at 1.1769, the next major support zone at around 1.1670 to 1.1684 would be unmasked. This area is important as 1.1684 corresponds with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the January rally, and 1.1670 is where the price had been previously compressed. Moreover, the 200-day SMA is found just under 1.1650 and meets the medium-term ascending trendline. This forms what could potentially be a very strong technical support level. If the market were to remain below 1.1650 for a significant period of time, the larger picture would become less sturdy, and the way towards the January low at 1.1576 would be cleared. On the other hand, the bulls would need to overpower the short-term descending trendline that has been limiting their exercise if they are to succeed in their next move upward. If the price were to go above that point, the 20-day SMA at 1.1839 would become the new target. Getting back above this moving average would represent a step forward in the bullish narrative and would bring the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1888 back into the spotlight. If the market uses the momentum further, it could reach the next 23.6% retracement at 1.1962. For now, the currency pair looks as if it is caught between the support levels at 1.17691.1650, which are going deeper, and resistance in the 1.18391.1888 area. The short-term bias stays neutral as long as EUR/USD moves between the 50-day SMA and the descending trendline. If the price goes below 1.1769, the momentum will likely be tilted toward the sellers; however, a move above 1.1839 will help to remove the selling pressure and bring the buying momentum back. Looking at the bigger picture, the longer-term bullish scenario would be the one to be relied on if the pair can get above the January high at 1.2081. Meanwhile, the price action will most probably be going sideways with traders focusing on the key moving averages and Fibonacci levels for getting confirmation of the next move direction.