FX.co ★ KHALISA | EUR/USD

Good afternoon. Looking at the current EURUSD currency pair, the price is still moving within a very limited range. The lower limit, or support area, is around 1.138, while the upper limit, or resistance, is around 1.147. In recent days, the price has tended to play within this range without any significant impulsive movements. However, yesterday's closing price, which attempted to rise and retest the supply area at 1.146, is quite interesting to observe. Today, the price is still attempting to retest that supply zone. If a valid breakout occurs above 1.148, a new uptrend structure will form on lower time frames, creating a higher high. On the daily time frame, bullish sentiment is evident, as the MACD histogram continues to climb and remains above the signal line. This condition cannot be ignored, as a reversal towards an uptrend is possible for EURUSD. Moreover, if the increase successfully closes above the middle Bollinger Band, it will be a confirmation signal that needs to be anticipated as the beginning of a trend change.

Meanwhile, if we move down to the H4 timeframe, EURUSD tends to fluctuate within a limited range. Yesterday's rally is still held at the static resistance area of 1.146, which coincides with the dynamic resistance area of the upper Bollinger Band. Although the price remains above the middle Bollinger Band and above the 50-day moving average (EMA), its movement is still very limited due to seller resistance at the upper Bollinger Band. Currently, the price has even begun to fall back to 1.1437. If this weakness continues and the price falls to 1.142 or even lower, the next downside target will be around 1.138. This area can be used to seek short-term selling opportunities. On the other hand, it is still too early to draw conclusions regarding the current buy option scenario. This is because the price is still consolidating and has not yet provided clear confirmation of a breakout, so the risk of a false breakout remains quite high if an entry is forced in these market conditions. To obtain a more definitive signal, I prefer to wait for valid confirmation before deciding to enter the market. I will consider focusing on new buy options if the price breaks through and closes above the 1.148 resistance level with sufficient volume. Conversely, for sell options, I will wait until the price breaks through the 1.136 support level to confirm continued weakness. For now, I tend to avoid EURUSD movements because the condition remains sideways. This sideways phase is often a transitional period, where the market can continue its previous downtrend or reverse into an uptrend, but it hasn't yet provided a valid indication. Furthermore, during consolidation, the price usually leaves a long shadow that breaks through minor resistance or support areas, which often traps retail traders in fakeout patterns. Therefore, the conclusion is that the EURUSD pair is currently still in a sideways trend on small time frames and hasn't provided a strong enough signal. I decided to wait and see while waiting for clearer confirmation of the breakout.