FX.co ★ glow_with_mouchi | EUR/USD

EUR/USD chart, my overall view is cautiously bullish. The pair has recovered from the June lows near 1.1320 and, more importantly, the structure has changed from a sequence of lower highs and lower lows into a series of higher highs and higher lows. For me, that is the most important technical development on this chart Price is currently around 1.1655, after recently reaching the 1.1700–1.1715 area. I see this zone as the first test for buyers. A clean daily close above 1.1715 would, in my opinion, confirm that the recent bullish momentum is not simply a corrective rebound. In that scenario, I would look toward 1.1750 first, followed by the psychologically important 1.1800 area. A sustained move above 1.1800 could open the door to a broader medium-term advance However, I would not chase the pair aggressively at these levels. The RSI is around 66, which shows strong bullish momentum but also tells me that EUR/USD is getting relatively stretched on the daily timeframe. It is not technically overbought yet, but the distance from the recent base is significant. Therefore, I would prefer either a controlled pullback or a confirmed breakout rather than entering in the middle of the current range. The MACD is giving me another reason to respect the bullish scenario. The histogram is clearly positive and expanding, while the MACD line remains above the signal line. This suggests that momentum is still favoring the upside. What I would watch closely, however, is whether the histogram begins to contract while price remains near 1.1700. That could be an early warning that bullish momentum is losing strength On the downside, my first support zone is around 1.1630–1.1600. This area is important because a pullback that holds here would still preserve the current bullish structure. Below that, I would watch 1.1555, followed by the 1.1500 region. A daily close below 1.1500 would make me much less confident in the bullish setup and would suggest that the recent recovery may have been only a temporary correction. From a broader market perspective, the current dollar weakness is also helping EUR/USD. Recent market commentary points to continued pressure on the U.S. dollar, while expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy and U.S. Treasury yields remain important drivers for the pair. Reuters reported on August 25 that the dollar was struggling to maintain gains, while EUR/USD remained near multi-month highs. That backdrop supports the technical picture, although it can change quickly around major U.S. data and central-bank communication My personal trading bias, therefore, is bullish above 1.1600, but I would become significantly more confident after a confirmed break of 1.1715. If resistance rejects price and 1.1600 fails, I would step aside rather than trying to predict the bottom.In short, EUR/USD looks constructive to me, but the next few daily candles are critical. Bulls have the momentum; now they need to prove they can break resistance.