FX.co ★ Trump: US trade deficit falls 78% and may turn to surplus in 2026

President Donald Trump said the United States had reduced its trade deficit by 78 percent following the imposition of tariffs and pledged that the country would move into a trade surplus for 2026. The methodology used to calculate the figure was not disclosed.

Government data partly corroborate the trend. The deficit in goods and services fell from a record $140.5 billion in March 2025 to $27.62 billion in October but widened to $56.82 billion in November. The full‑year deficit for 2025 is expected to exceed $800 billion, down from a record $1.2 trillion in 2024.

December data could record the first positive monthly trade balance since 1975, at about $55.50 billion. Nonetheless, the goods deficit remains close to record levels of roughly $1.2 trillion.

Mr. Trump’s tariffs did reduce imports from China, down from $401 billion to $288 billion for January–November 2025. However, displaced volumes were replaced by shipments from other Asian and European countries, limiting the overall impact of the trade restrictions.