FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I am closely tracking USD/JPY as it trades around 155.18, and I see this zone as a decisive psychological battleground for the pair. I recognize that the 155.00 handle has evolved into a high-volume pivot area where both speculative flows and macro-driven positioning are colliding. I observe on the daily chart that price action remains firmly above the MA100, which is sloping upward at roughly a 10-degree angle, and I interpret this as a structurally supportive trend backdrop rather than an exhausted rally. I note that all recent daily candles are forming above this key moving average, and I interpret that as confirmation that the broader bullish structure from 152.00 is still technically intact. I see the MA18 positioned above the key moving average as well, and I read this alignment as momentum confirmation following the brief corrective dip that failed to gain traction. I interpret the failed sell signal and the swift rebound as evidence that buyers are still defending dips aggressively. I also notice that the Ichimoku Cloud is still colored bearish, and I interpret that as a warning that the current upward push may still be part of a transitional phase rather than a fully synchronized bullish expansion. I see the histogram narrowing and attempting to rotate upward, and I interpret that as early momentum rebuilding rather than full acceleration. I remain focused on 155.67 as my first estimated resistance and I see a sustained break above it as a potential trigger toward 156.25 and possibly a retest of 157.66.

I am also studying the H4 and hourly structures to refine my timing, and I see that the intraday climb toward the 156.25 pivot appears orderly rather than impulsively overstretched. I interpret the gradual slope upward as constructive accumulation rather than speculative blow-off behavior. I notice that the younger moving averages are attempting to cross above the older ones from below, and I read this as an emerging short-term bullish crossover that aligns with the broader daily bias. I remain cautious, however, because I see that momentum on the histogram is rising sluggishly, and I interpret that as a sign that buying pressure is present but not yet dominant. I understand that if price holds firmly above 154.65, I can reasonably anticipate continuation toward 157.00, but I also accept that a clean rejection from 155.50–156.00 could quickly reopen the path toward 152.00. I factor in the macro environment, including Federal Reserve hawkish undertones and shifting Bank of Japan expectations, and I recognize that any inflation surprise could destabilize this fragile equilibrium. I remain patient because I value confirmation over anticipation, and I prefer to see whether 155 transforms into structural support before committing capital again. I am watching closely, but I am disciplined enough to wait for the market to reveal its true intent before re-entering.