FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CAD

On the H4 chart of USD/CAD, the current price structure suggests that the northward movement has not yet reached its logical conclusion, as the pair continues to trade within a broader upward context while interacting with key liquidity zones. The recent advance appears aimed at sweeping liquidity above previously formed highs, particularly around 1.3713–1.3725, where stop orders from short sellers and breakout buyers are likely concentrated. The breakout above 1.3680, a confluence area of daily and weekly resistance that has now turned into support, reinforces the strength of the short-term bullish structure, especially since price consolidated above it and reacted positively on the retest. However, the inability to sustain gains above 1.37 and the quick return toward the 1.36 handle indicate that liquidity engineering may still be in progress rather than a straightforward trend continuation. A corrective move toward the volume accumulation zone at 1.3676 remains technically justified, as such a pullback could encourage additional short positioning while simultaneously building resting liquidity above the current price. If bullish confirmation emerges from that lower zone, supported by rising volume and reduced overhead supply, the pair could extend toward 1.3734, where another cluster of volume and potential sell interest resides. A decisive sweep above 1.3725–1.3750 would likely represent a final liquidity grab before a broader corrective phase unfolds. Oscillators on the H4 timeframe remain elevated but are no longer accelerating, suggesting upside momentum is present yet fragile. Therefore, short-term pullbacks should be interpreted as structural rebalancing within a still constructive intraday framework rather than immediate trend reversals.

On the W1 timeframe, the structure remains broadly neutral despite the prior break below last year’s low, which increasingly resembles a false breakout designed to trigger stops beneath the 2025 floor before initiating recovery. The rebound from the major ascending trendline originating in 2023 confirmed that long-term buyers remain active, although the advance was capped near 1.3930 resistance, visible more clearly on the daily chart. The subsequent breakdown of that long-standing trendline introduced medium-term uncertainty, yet the swift buyback and hammer close suggest absorption rather than sustained distribution. Notably, bearish divergence on the CCI indicator at higher timeframes indicates that upside progress may be corrective rather than impulsive, implying that any continuation above 1.3723–1.3750 could face structural headwinds from the descending senior moving average. The alignment of junior moving averages beneath the senior average reflects the broader corrective context that began after the December peak, even though recent weekly price action hints at gradual upward pressure. Within the ascending intraday channel formed over the last three reversals, price is now approaching a decision zone where liquidity above 1.3725 could be swept before a meaningful pullback develops toward 1.3662 and potentially deeper toward 1.3521, the upper boundary of the protected zone. Until liquidity above the current highs is fully absorbed, sustained downside may remain limited, as market makers often require a convincing narrative of weakness before initiating a larger upward expansion. Consequently, while the pair appears temporarily capped near 1.3723, structural dynamics still favor one more upward attempt before any durable decline materializes.