FX.co ★ HNB | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a punishing correction over the past two months, with the premier digital asset cascading from its late December peak of $95,925 to a current valuation near $67,840. This 29% drawdown—which at one point reached a 50% collapse to $60,000 in early February—marks a definitive shift from the "euphoria phase" of late 2025 to a regime of "extreme fear." The fundamental catalysts behind this slide are multi-faceted, ranging from a "stagflationary" US economic print—where Q4 GDP slowed to 1.4% amid a government shutdown while core PCE inflation stayed sticky at 3.0%—to a significant cooling of institutional conviction. Large-scale outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling roughly $3.9 billion since mid-January, have transformed these once-bullish vehicles into sources of mechanical selling pressure. Furthermore, while the US Supreme Court recently ruled President Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs unconstitutional, the administrations immediate pivot toward alternative 10% global duties has kept "risk-off" sentiment high, limiting Bitcoins ability to act as a defensive hedge. Technically, the Bitcoin chart presents a textbook bearish breakdown. After slicing through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level like a hot knife through butter, the price is now struggling to maintain its footing at the 23.6% support level ($67,800). This zone is critical; it represents the final line of defense before a potential retest of the February "flush" low near $59,358. The widening of the Bollinger Bands indicates that volatility remains historically high, while the prices persistent hugging of the lower band confirms that sellers are still in the drivers seat. Moreover, the daily 50-day and 200-day moving averages have begun to slope downward, acting as a "dynamic ceiling" that has rejected every relief rally attempted in the last three weeks. The current "circled" consolidation phase near $67,000 reflects a market in deep indecision, caught between exhausted sellers and cautious buyers. On-chain data suggests that while "OG" long-term holders began distributing their coins near the $100,000 psychological milestone, some whales have started "nibbling" at these lower levels, suggesting a local bottom may be forming. However, the momentum indicators—specifically a neutral-to-negative MACD and an RSI hovering near 38—suggest that any recovery will be a "slog" rather than a vertical spike. For a bullish reversal to be confirmed, BTC must not only hold $67,800 but decisively reclaim the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $73,071 on high volume. Until then, the path of least resistance remains tilted toward the $62,800 and $59,000 support zones.