FX.co ★ absh kaat | EUR/USD

I start by acknowledging that the upward movement in EUR/USD was timely and aligned with my expectations, reinforcing my belief that the trend, which has been developing since October 10, remains valid despite short-term fluctuations. I recognize that yesterday’s news had the potential to push the price in either direction—back toward 1.1580, where my breakeven stop-loss was positioned, or upward toward 1.1660, a level that has acted as a stubborn barrier for several sessions. I find it encouraging that the market reacted positively, confirming the broader bullish sentiment, but I also observe that the rally quickly lost momentum upon entering the 1.1640–1.1645 selling range. I interpret this rejection as a signal that sellers are still protecting their territory, preventing the pair from breaking higher. I note that despite the strong upward impulse, the resistance zone continues to hold firm, and I view this as a temporary pause rather than a complete reversal. I decided not to adjust my existing long positions during the move, preferring instead to manage risk carefully. I strategically locked in a short position equal to one-third of my initial lot size to hedge against potential pullbacks while maintaining exposure to the main trend. I consider this balanced approach—holding longs while partially shorting—to be effective in uncertain conditions. I see the market as being at a crossroads, where a clear breakout above 1.1660 could revive bullish momentum, but a failure to sustain above 1.1640 might trigger a deeper correction. I plan to monitor upcoming dollar-related catalysts closely, as I believe they will determine whether the euro continues its ascent or reverts to testing lower support zones.

I begin this analysis by noting that the euro/dollar pair remains at a critical juncture, where uncertainty dominates and traders are divided between bullish and bearish outlooks. I see the 1.1660 level as a key pivot point that continues to attract attention, and I believe that the fact it was not broken confirms the market’s reluctance to shift momentum decisively. I interpret this as a sign that sellers are still holding control, but I also acknowledge that the buyers are not giving up, which creates a tug-of-war environment. I consider this phase to be a testing ground for discipline, as emotions can easily sway decisions when volatility decreases and clarity fades. I understand that many traders entered shorts near resistance with tight stops, and I view their approach as sensible under current conditions. I recognize that recent news has already been priced in, and I anticipate that upcoming batches of dollar-related data could trigger new impulses next week. I prefer to proceed with caution, emphasizing that precision in trading comes from patience and adherence to strategy rather than chasing impulses. I treat this consolidation as preparation for a stronger movement ahead, and I remain ready to act decisively once a clear breakout occurs. I remind myself that, in such periods, risk management is the foundation of profitability, and I plan my entries based on technical confirmation rather than assumptions. I conclude that my outlook remains flexible: if 1.1660 holds, I will favor short opportunities, but if buyers push beyond it with volume confirmation, I will reconsider my stance and shift accordingly.