FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

I am analyzing the USD/JPY pair on the 4-hour timeframe, and I see that price is currently correcting within a broader uptrend while moving inside a clearly defined descending channel. I am noting that price remains below the Ichimoku cloud, and I interpret this as a strong signal that bearish momentum is dominant at this stage of the market. I am also observing that the stochastic indicator has turned downward, and I consider this confirmation that selling pressure is increasing rather than fading. I am watching today’s trading session closely, and I see that the pair continued to move south, with sellers managing to consolidate below the second support level around 152.89. I am using classic pivot levels as intraday reference points, and I expect these levels to act as natural downside targets if bearish pressure persists. I am particularly focused on the third support level at 150.86, because I believe that a decisive break below this zone will trigger a new wave of selling. I am expecting that such a break would open the path toward the next major support area around 149.30, where the market may pause or attempt stabilization. I am also aware that if bulls unexpectedly return to the market, the resistance level at 158.08 would become the key benchmark for the current price structure. I am seeing significant market turmoil today, and I feel that capital is flowing in multiple directions without clear coordination. I am noticing that USD/JPY is holding up relatively better than many other instruments, but I do not interpret this stability as strength. I am analyzing the daily chart and I see that yesterday’s candle closed bullish, while today’s candle is bearish, which at first glance gives an impression of balance. I am looking deeper into the daily structure, and I see that yesterday’s bullish candle is surrounded by four bearish candles and a visible gap, which clearly tilts the situation in favor of sellers. I am therefore expecting further downside and I am not considering buy positions under current conditions.

I am observing that moving averages are actively pressing down on price, and I see them acting as dynamic resistance rather than support. I am aware that price impulses are becoming smaller, and I interpret this contraction as preparation for continuation rather than reversal. I am acknowledging that if price were to break above the moving averages and successfully test them from above, it would technically justify a buying scenario. I am also reminding myself that USD/JPY is one of the most unpredictable pairs, especially when Japanese market participants become active. I am considering that Japanese traders may react strongly to movements in gold and broader risk sentiment once their session begins. I am not surprised that some long positions could still work, and I am not dismissing alternative scenarios entirely. I am noting, however, that USD/JPY has not fallen significantly today despite gold experiencing a sharp drop driven by buying pressure. I am interpreting this divergence as a sign of artificial stability rather than organic strength. I am still considering the possibility of a short-term rise, but I believe this would require a breakout above the EMA20, which is currently acting as resistance. I am watching the fast EMA8 near 153.15, and I see it serving as immediate resistance that price is struggling to overcome. I am expecting that a rejection from this level could generate a sell signal with a downside target near 152.15. I am factoring in broader macro uncertainty, and I believe that the market does not fully trust the Federal Reserve or recent statements from officials. I am convinced that political uncertainty surrounding Trump and geopolitical tension between the US and Iran are contributing to the current hesitation. I am analyzing the fair value gap and Fibonacci structure, and I see that the gap aligns with the 50.0 retracement level, confirming equilibrium rather than imbalance. I am not expecting this gap to be filled, as I view it as a time-based pause rather than a price inefficiency. I am focusing on the 23.6 Fibonacci level, and I see that price is already trading below it near 153.11. I am expecting a drop during the upcoming session that could close the local low at 152.68 and extend toward 151.23 next week. I am convinced that the decline could be deep, especially given ongoing Japanese currency interventions. I am choosing to wait out any corrective rallies, and I am confident that the bearish scenario is not only viable but long-awaited.